G.O.P. Voters, in Big Shift, Favor McCain Over His Rivals

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/us/... />
January 14, 2008
G.O.P. Voters, in Big Shift, Favor McCain Over His Rivals
By ROBIN TONER and MARJORIE CONNELLY

WASHINGTON - Republican voters have sharply altered their views of the party's presidential candidates following the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, with Senator John McCain, once widely written off, now viewed more favorably than any of his major competitors, according to the latest nationwide New York Times/CBS News Poll.

The findings underscored the extraordinary volatility in the Republican race and suggested that the party was continuing to search for a nominee whom it could rally around. Nearly three quarters of Republican primary voters said it was still too early for them to make up their minds "for sure," meaning that they could shift their allegiances yet again if one or more of Mr. McCain's rivals breaks through in the two Republican primaries this week, in Michigan and South Carolina.

On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama's victory in Iowa has improved his standing within the party on a critical measure: his electability. The percentage of Democrats who say he would be the strongest candidate against the Republicans has more than doubled in a month, to 35 percent from 14 percent in December.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who won her party's primary in New Hampshire, still has an edge on electability, a substantial advantage on experience - the central selling point of her campaign - and leads among Democrats nationally. But Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are now viewed by Democrats as almost equally qualified on a variety of measures, including the ability to serve as commander in chief.

Americans' priorities are also in flux early into the primary season. The survey found voters to be in their darkest mood about the economy in 18 years, by some measures; 62 percent said they believed that the economy was getting worse, the highest percentage since the run-up to the recession in 1990. Seventy-five percent said they believed that the country has "seriously gotten off on the wrong track," also similar to levels in the early 1990s, when such discontent fueled the presidential candidacy of Bill Clinton.

Worries about the economy now dominate the voters' agenda, even more so than the war in Iraq, which framed the early part of this campaign. While change has emerged as an abstract rallying cry in the campaign debate, what the voters mean when they talk about change is clear - new approaches to the economy and the war, according to the poll. Issues that have loomed large in the Republican debate - notably immigration, taxes and moral values - pale by comparison.

The poll's findings are based on a national telephone survey conducted Jan. 9-12 with 1,061 registered voters; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The survey was begun one day after the primaries in New Hampshire, where Mr. McCain won, and amounted to a snapshot of a Republican contest that remains remarkably fluid after almost a year of campaigning. While national polls are of limited value in predicting the outcome of primaries in particular states, they capture broad shifts in opinion, in this case a sharp movement for Mr. McCain after a big victory and a wave of media attention. Thirty-three percent of Republican primary voters in the poll named Mr. McCain, of Arizona, as their choice, up from 7 percent a month ago.

Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, whose favorability ratings jumped after he won in Iowa, was the choice of 18 percent of Republican primary voters. Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, who is focusing his campaign on later contests, had the most precipitous fall; he was the choice of 10 percent of Republican voters, down from 22 percent last month. Support for other candidates was in single digits.

The poll also had worrisome signs for Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who finished second in both Iowa and New Hampshire and is in a tough three-way battle in Michigan against Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee. Not only did support for him among Republican voters plummet over the past month, but he was also viewed much less favorably than a month ago.

Mr. McCain, a longtime maverick in his own party, was named by Republican primary voters in the survey as the candidate most likely to win his party's nomination. Thirty-nine percent of these primary voters saw Mr. McCain as the likely nominee. Only 11 percent saw Mr. Giuliani prevailing.

Mr. McCain's image ratings also have soared. More than half of the Republican primary voters (57 percent) - including more half of the conservatives - viewed him favorably in the new poll, compared with 37 percent in December.

"I don't always agree with him on all the issues," Jeff Little, a 34-year-old actuary and Republican from Apple Valley, Minn., said in an interview after he participated in the poll. "But I feel he, more than most politicians, tells you what he thinks."

Patrick Herron, a 61-year-old retired social studies teacher from Syracuse, described Mr. McCain as "more of a moderate."

"He's willing to cross the aisles and work with the Democratic Party," said Mr. Herron, another poll participant.

The poll showed a more stable Democratic race. Among Democratic primary voters nationally, Mrs. Clinton, of New York, remains the favorite of 42 percent, compared with 27 percent backing Mr. Obama, of Illinois - essentially unchanged since December. John Edwards of North Carolina remains in third place at 11 percent.

But there were auspicious signs for Mr. Obama as the contest moves to the South, where blacks account for a large share of the Democratic primary electorate.

About half of black Democratic primary voters - 49 percent - said they planned to vote for Mr. Obama, while 34 percent said they backed Mrs. Clinton. Among white Democratic primary voters, 42 percent said they were supporting Mrs. Clinton, while 24 percent said they backed Mr. Obama. On the question of whether the country was ready for a black president, black voters were more skeptical than whites; 47 percent of blacks said the country was prepared to send a black person to the White House, while 56 percent of whites said they felt that way. A majority of whites and blacks, and men and women, considered the country ready for a woman president.

The survey showed that Democratic voters see Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton as evenly matched on several leadership qualities, despite the efforts of both camps to draw distinctions. Virtually the same percentages of Democrats said Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama could unify the country and bring about "real change." Both were given high marks as potential commanders in chief.

But Mrs. Clinton retains a strong edge on her readiness to be president. Nearly 8 in 10 Democratic primary voters said she had prepared herself well enough for the job and for all the issues that she might face. Only 40 percent said Mr. Obama had, and 53 percent said he needed a few more years to prepare.

Many Democrats said Mrs. Clinton was not getting equal treatment from the news media. Fifty-one percent of Democratic primary voters said the news media had been harder on Mrs. Clinton than on other candidates; 12 percent said the media had been harder on Mr. Obama. Women were particularly likely to feel that she had been unfairly treated, while men were evenly divided.

Still, there are signs of resistance to another Clinton administration. Thirty-eight percent said they thought it was bad for two families - the Bushes and the Clintons - to hold the presidency for so long.

Overall, Democrats appeared to be more intense than Republicans as the election year begins. Fifty-eight percent of the Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, compared with 32 percent of the Republicans.

We'll see!

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Robin Toner is a head writer for the New York Times . Good piece of Fiction .

 

Fred Thompson 2008 

 

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This is the first time I remember democrats getting to select the Republican nominee.   With New Hampshire allowing open primaries where dems could be satisfied with any of their field could in essence go over and hiJack the republican process and also the establishment could bus in  a bunch of out of state shills to show up and demand a ballot and vote for Hillary and McCain to give the impression of a groundswell of support for the most offensive person to ever pretend to be a conservative on the ballot.   Next up Michigan where the dems are not campaigning or "contesting" so that allows the bored dems to go over and vote for McCain as well.   South Carolina, God bless them forgetting what John McCain's support of NAFTA has done to their state's manufactuing base and His recent flip flop on Abortion are looking at his military service and listening to the liberal polls and all of the establishment lackeys coming out of the woodwork to endorse their Washington cohort.  This smacks of the Bob Dole run and we all know how that worked out.     Florida , (like Michigan,) is not being campaigned in by the Dems ( another boycott ) so another opportunity for Dems to Hijack the Republican conservative base and put RINO JOhn up near the top in Florida too.  

  The establishment machine loves the fact that the republican conservative base is less than thrilled with it's " Front-Runner "  Field that they threw at us.   Democrats showed up 3 to 1 over Republican to caucus in Iowa and appear to be more excited about participating than the repubs do and once they have given us our liberal and offensive candidate on the Republican ticket they can abandon him for the stated liberal on the democratic side in the general election.     Conservatives will be left to decide which sick Open Borders, NAFTA, NAU, Global Warming, Pro-Choice , liberal they want in the white house.   John McCain is not morally fit to share the same air with Duncan Hunter , but the establishment is running this show.  God Save us !

TG  

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Tommygarage said:  This is the first time I remember democrats getting to select the Republican nominee. 

That's why they selected a nominee that is actually more of a Democrat.

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TG, your next to the last sentence saying John McCain isn't fit to breath the same air as Duncan Hunter is exactly right. There are a large number of Republicans who are teetering on the fence right now about going 3rd party in November. I am one of them. I have been in touch with the RNC twice lately, and told them in language you might hear out behind the barn that we in the Republican Party base are not going to vote for Giuliani, McCain, or Huckabee. I told them I'd be glad to vote for Duncan Hunter since he is the only true conservative the Republicans are running. And, that I might vote for Romney as a last resort. But, I would not vote for any of the rest. I'd go 3rd party. It is an insult for us conservatives to have 3 well known RINO's leading the Republican Party race. A few months ago, I felt like I should vote for any Republican who got the nomination to keep the office of President out of the hands of a left wing, socialist Democrat. I don't feel that way any longer. If the Republican Party runs Huckabee, McCain, or Giuliani, I will consider that as a signal that they are tossing their true base overboard, and I will go 3rd party and perhaps join a 3rd party.

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by all means, send the GOP a message!!! vote 3rd party or stay home!!! stay true to your principals people!

F*** McCain! I will never vote for him after all of his two faced antics on a multitude of issues.

mudcock said: by all means, send the GOP a message!!! vote 3rd party or stay home!!! stay true to your principals people!

 

Mudcoch,

It's not over until it's over!

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mudcock said: by all means, send the GOP a message!!! vote 3rd party or stay home!!! stay true to your principals people!

 

We will stay true to the Constitution- especially the second amendment.

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Nonsense, Muddy.  What you've seen so far is DEMOCRATS preferring McCain.  Let's see what the states with CLOSED primaries say.

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Alamo1836 said:

mudcock said: by all means, send the GOP a message!!! vote 3rd party or stay home!!! stay true to your principals people!

 

We will stay true to the Constitution- especially the second amendment.

 

You said it . I agree

the day i take advice from Mr.progressive lib Mudcock will be the day i vote for Putin ..

Who  are you a plant for Mudcock ? I found your old "The Ugly side of Anti-Immigration" post (now locked) on page 2 of a google search .  Under Anti-Immigration groups/forums . Whoa

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im just a patriotic american concerned about the future of my country. i belong to no other groups regarding immigration at all. i represent the slim majority of americans who otherwise would be silent on this site.

 who goes to page 2 on a google search anyway?  not my fault my threads have become so popular, in fact i couldnt do it without you guys.

 

so if the choice is mccain v. obama or mccain v clinton, how many of you would you....

A) hold your nose and vote mccain

B) find a 3rd choice

C) stay home and not vote

D) vote for the democrat

E) vote proudly for mccain and all he stands for

?????

 

Mudcock:

I think I would hold my nose and vote for McCain. If it does come to that I bet my nose is bleeding when I leave the booth.

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You can bet your booties that I am not going to try to punish all Republicans by staying at home on election day. I am going to vote. If I have to drive, walk, or crawl on my hands and knees to get there, I'll be there. But, when I look at the Presidential section of the ballot and I see Huckabee, McCain, or Giuliani, I will either vote 3rd party or just skip the Presidential section and vote on the rest. No more voting AGAINST someone. I will either vote FOR someone or FOR no one. If the National Republican Party sits back and allows only RINO's to rise to the top, I will take that as a sign that the Republican Party is throwing it's true base overboard. I will join a 3rd party movement.

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Allen,

I don't think McCain will win the nomination because he does not have the support of the base. The reason I would vote for McCain over Obama or Hillary is because he would continue to fight the war on Islamic terrorism.

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From newsmax today: Santorum: McCain Presidency Very Dangerous

Monday, January 14, 2008 4:48 PM By: Newmax Staff

Former Senator and leading conservative Rick Santorum says a John McCain presidency would be “very, very dangerous for Republicans.” Santorum — who was defeated in 2006 after two terms as a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania — was sharply critical of fellow Republican McCain in an interview that aired last week on syndicated talk radio host Mark Levin’s show. Responding to Levin’s observation that McCain is trying to recast himself as more conservative now that he is seeking the GOP presidential nomination, Santorum said: “It’s amazing to hear what John McCain is trying to convince the voters he is all about. The bottom line is, I served 12 years with him, six years in the Senate as one of the leaders of the Senate, trying to put together the conservative agenda, and almost at every turn, on domestic policy, John McCain was not only against us, but leading the charge on the other side.” Santorum cited the campaign finance reform bill sponsored by McCain, the McCain-Feingold Act, which limits campaign contributions and has been called by some an “incumbent protection act.” Santorum called the act “an affront to personal freedom and liberty in this country, and what we’ve seen as a result of this misguided attempt to placate the New York Times and to help his stature within that community … is that special interests have absolutely taken over the political process, and individual candidates, unless you’re a billionaire, and parties have very little voice in the process. “It’s a shame, but he was obviously out front on that.” The former Senator also criticized McCain for voting against the Bush Tax cuts — he was one of only two Republicans to do so. “The reduction in [tax] rates and lowering the rates on capital gains and dividends … did so much to get this economy up and going. [But] we would have had a much bigger tax cut if it were not for John McCain.” Santorum pointed to McCain’s opposition to conservative positions on drug re-importation, federally funded embryonic stem cell research, immigration, the questioning of terror detainees and other issues, and said he has a “big fear” of a McCain presidency. He asserted it would create a “huge rift” in the Republican Party, and told Levin’s listeners: “I think he’s been solid in the war on terror … but on domestic policy, he’s very, very dangerous for Republicans. “There’s nothing worse than having a Democratic Congress and a Republican president who would act like a Democrat in matters that are important to conservatives.” Santorum also claimed that McCain was a leader of Senate moderates that often stopped Republicans from pushing strong pro-life legislation. Santorum said he had not decided which candidate he will vote for in the upcoming GOP primary, but ruled out voting for McCain. Santorum expressed the same sentiment back in March, saying he would support whoever wins the Republican nomination for president in 2008, with the exception of John McCain. As Newsmax reported at the time, Santorum said in an interview: "I don’t agree with him on hardly any issues. I don’t think he has the temperament and leadership ability to move the country in the right direction.”     © 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

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Maybe we all need to let the Republican National Committee know that we will not vote for McCain.  I will write in Duncan Hunter but I will absolutely not vote for McCain, Huckabee or Giuliani.  No Way! No How!  I refuse to vote for anyone who cares more about illegal aliens than the very people who elected them and pays their salary.  I fully intend to notify the RNC of my intentions. 

Mammaw said:

Maybe we all need to let the Republican National Committee know that we will not vote for McCain.  I will write in Duncan Hunter but I will absolutely not vote for McCain, Huckabee or Giuliani.  No Way! No How!  I refuse to vote for anyone who cares more about illegal aliens than the very people who elected them and pays their salary.  I fully intend to notify the RNC of my intentions. 

 

Mammaw, be sure to include this:

http://grades.betterimmigration.com/testgrades.php3?District=AZ&VIPID=33

 

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hey jim, there's a reason santorum is a FORMER senator from PA, he is way out of step with the rest of the country on most issues. whereas mccain keeps getting re-elected.