N.H. Republican Primary

N.H. Republican Primary

McCain's big win over Romney leaves the GOP race wide open.

McCain: McCain's huge victory here verifies his resurrection from the dead and puts him at the front of the pack.

1. McCain's 37 percent to Romney's 32 percent was a bigger-than-expected victory. McCain, at age 71, is now the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination, although he certainly does not have an easy path there.
   
   
2. McCain won among Republicans as well as independents, and he did very well among pro-choice voters. His decision to skip Iowa and focus on New Hampshire appears to have been the right move.
   
   
3. He deserves credit for how he handled his months in the wilderness. He dramatically pruned his staff after poor fundraising and plunging poll numbers knocked him off his post as the original frontrunner. Huckabee's surge, first foreshadowed with his strong showing in August's Iowa straw poll, provided the opportunity for McCain's big blow last night. While Romney's strategy is in shambles, McCain's Plan B is working perfectly.
   
   
4. Winning New Hampshire for the second time gives McCain a boost to repeat in Michigan, as well. Lacking the funds that Romney and Giuliani enjoy, McCain has plenty of hard work in front of him, but now he has the wind at his back.

Romney: Romney's second loss puts his well-financed campaign at death's door.

1. Romney's core tactic in New Hampshire of attacking McCain on immigration fell flat partly because McCain reduced the issue to a squabble over the definition of "amnesty." Also, the negativity seemed to hurt him here as it did in Iowa. Finally, as a well-off corporate raider, it's hard for voters to believe Romney really cares about the issue. It comes across as opportunistic and purely political. Immigration has not proved a winning issue in recent years.
   
   
2. Iowa doesn't determine New Hampshire, but this time it certainly had an effect. For many Republicans, Romney was simply the "electable conservative." Once he lost to Huckabee, that title vanished. Also, Huckabee's attacks on Romney were effective. Finally, Iowa emboldened the other Republicans in Saturday night's debate, and he looked bad.
   
   
3. While Romney can dig into his own massive fortunes to stay alive, it's hard to imagine where he can win if he can't win in two states where he has spent huge amounts of money and time. The voters who know him best -- including those in his neighboring state of New Hampshire -- aren't quite sold on him.
   
   
4. On the upside, Romney leads in the delegate chase, and his two second-place finishes were convincingly ahead of the third place finishers. Still, a loss in Michigan probably ends his run.

The Field: Huckabee, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Rep. Ron Paul (Calif.) constitute a second tier in New Hampshire, with Thompson and Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.) taking up the rear.

1. Third place in New Hampshire, even if it's a distant third place, is a good showing for Huckabee, who didn't even register on the polls here recently. The Iowa win combined with Thompson's failure to make a dent gave Huckabee his 11 percent.
   
   
2. According to exit polls, Huckabee easily won among voters who believe abortion should always be illegal, showing that he is becoming the pro-life candidate Romney and Thompson had hoped to be.
   
   
3. Giuliani's 9 percent third-place finish -- remember, this is the man who was considered the front-runner upon McCain's collapse -- is pretty dismal, and it highlights the desperation of his rope-a-dope strategy of trying to survive without any wins until Florida. McCain picked up many of the New Hampshire moderates Giuliani would otherwise have gotten, and it's questionable whether Giuliani can hold on to the moderates in future states.
   
   
4. Ron Paul's fourth place and 8 percent keeps him relevant, but it dims any hope that he will become a real factor. The "Live Free or Die" state was the best hope for the libertarian maverick, and even with his fundraising success here, he couldn't beat any of the top-tier candidates.
   
   
5. Thompson barely registered here, pulling in fewer than 3,000 votes. This means he has basically zero grass-roots enthusiasm. Although there's not a single typical conservative among the front-running GOP candidates, it would take quite a surprise for Thompson to become a factor.
   
   
6. Hunter's awful showing here (about 1,000 votes) should end his candidac

(CM) theSuperPatriot said: McCain's big win over Romney leaves the GOP race wide open.

SP,

  You are quite correct.  That is very good news for those of us who support a longshot candidate.    But, I don't see where McCain really needs any money with FOX and CNN both turning into the McCain Channel.   " My Friends" , for the last three weeks they have been banging their McCain drum relentlessly.    Free press 24/7 and no one other than Tom Delay pointing out the reality of RINO John.    How well would the very experienced in foreign policy Duncan Hunter be polling if he got the free press enjoyed by Johnny Boy ? A mite better I reckon'.

TG

Patsy said: You know, I don't understand what all the big to-do is about NH.  It was the 3rd of more than 50 primaries and caucuses, and not even a huge state with a ton of delegates.  It was wide open before McCain won, and it still is, and will be no doubt until at least Super Tuesday.  

I agree....

Tommygarage said:

(CM) theSuperPatriot said: McCain's big win over Romney leaves the GOP race wide open.

SP,

  You are quite correct.  That is very good news for those of us who support a longshot candidate.    But, I don't see where McCain really needs any money with FOX and CNN both turning into the McCain Channel.   " My Friends" , for the last three weeks they have been banging their McCain drum relentlessly.    Free press 24/7 and no one other than Tom Delay pointing out the reality of RINO John.    How well would the very experienced in foreign policy Duncan Hunter be polling if he got the free press enjoyed by Johnny Boy ? A mite better I reckon'.

TG

It is all scripted lip service, Tommy.  It has been a given for 8 years that McCain would win New Hampshire.  He played to the Independents just as he did in 2000 and when they get to South Carolina Republicans will hand his your know what to him again just as they did then.

I had many 'discussions' with people back then saying 'Republicans will not vote for John McCain' and I say it still today.  He may even be the next to pull out.