James Carville found that for independents ÃÂ

Immigration reshapes politics everywhere

By: Jim VandeHei and John F. Harris
Dec 13, 2007 05:57 AM EST

If there was any doubt about the fearsome power of an anti-immigration message in American politics this election cycle, Republican Bob Latta drove a stake through it on Tuesday.

It’s hard to imagine a more miserable political climate for Republicans — hurting nationally because of the unpopularity of President Bush and the Iraq war, and even more in Ohio because of the economy and local factors that have knocked the GOP off its game over the past two years.

But Latta, running in a special election for a suburban Toledo-based House district, crafted a message — echoed by party officials — that bashed illegal immigrants who live here, drive here or get government-funded health care.

He won by 14 points. Democrats and Republicans alike credit the immigration message for the big margin.

It’s already clear this result is no anomaly. For all the commentary about immigration, the full depth of the issue has yet to sink in to most of this year’s election analysis. Simply put: No other issue has ricocheted with more unpredictable impact across more races at more levels.

So far, the politicians of both parties seared by immigration politics far outnumber those like Latta who have benefited. This issue is the political equivalent of juggling with loaded guns. 

Let’s start counting victims:

• The congressional effort to pair border enforcement with a pathway to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants was devastating to Republicans.

House Minority Leader John A. Boehner told Politico in a recent interview that Republican fundraising “sucks” since this summer, almost entirely because conservatives were livid over President Bush’s bid for comprehensive reform that smacked of amnesty to many activists. RNC officials tell us their direct mail money dried up — with some regular donors writing nasty things about immigration as the reason they were stiffing the party.

• John McCain’s presidential campaign has plenty of problems, but current and former operatives of his campaign say the biggest factor in his 2007 nosedive was the leading role he played as an advocate of the bipartisan Senate reform effort.

• Rudy Giuliani has been forced to fend off attacks about declaring New York City a “sanctuary” for illegal immigrants when he was mayor. And Mitt Romney has been embarrassed by reports that illegal immigrants were working in his yard — twice.

• Bush once believed that no matter how much he infuriated Democrats, he enjoyed a “floor” of hard-core conservative support. But that floor collapsed in significant measure due to immigration politics.

• Even Hillary Rodham Clinton is not immune. The Democratic front-runner’s worst moment of the campaign came when she suggested she supported driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants — only to oppose the idea days later amid a nasty backlash.

The experience has radically changed the GOP approach to immigration.

Now, with the exception of McCain and few others, Republicans talk only about border security and cracking down on illegal immigrants. Many GOP strategists are talking about immigration as the bedrock of the 2008 campaigns. If the economy worsens, and people feel even more that their jobs are threatened, the attacks on immigrants are likely to only intensify.

In the short run, the appeal is obvious. Republicans came close to winning an October special election in a strongly Democratic Massachusetts district with a harsh immigration message that anticipated the Ohio race.

Long-term, the risks are obvious as the significance of the Hispanic vote continues to rise. But polling shows clearly why GOP politicians are choosing to live in the moment — and worry tomorrow about tomorrow.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll completed in early December found that while only 6 percent of Democrats say illegal immigration is “the top priority” for candidates, fully 23 percent of Republicans viewed it as “the top priority.”

Only national security issues concerned GOP voters more than illegal immigration, according to the poll.

“How high it is on the list of Republican priorities right now is remarkable. And it’s really not on the landscape of the Democratic side, despite the fact that immigration is an issue that divides both parties,” said Michael Dimock, associate director of research for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

“There are a number of Republicans who are not ‘build a wall, deport them all,’” Dimock continued. “And there are a number of Democrats who feel threatened by illegal immigration, particularly its economic and job impact.”

The nature of the illegal immigration debate may be more pervasive than other cultural issues, reaching deeply into concerns over national identity, law and cultural cohesion.

“It’s a question of ‘Who am I, what is this country supposed to be like?’” said Shanto Iyengar, a political scientist at Stanford University.

“There is a long history of these kinds of appeals. Not only immigration, but you can put crime in this light.”

Iyengar drew comparisons to the infamous Willie Horton ads of the 1988 race, used by George H.W. Bush to undercut Michael Dukakis on crime.

“In the general election, this issue will play very dramatically in favor of Republicans,” Iyengar said. But he added that the salience of the illegal immigration issue depends on its place in the hierarchy of the coming general election debate.

A late October study by senior Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg, Al Quinlan and James Carville found that for independents — roughly a third of voters — the “top issue underlying the discontent is ‘our borders’ having been ‘left unprotected and illegal immigration’ growing.”

The issue was cited by four in 10 independents, which was nearly double the rate at which independents referenced the war in Iraq.

For now, however, the debate over illegal immigration is largely isolated to the Republican campaigns.

Republican Rep. Peter Roskam spent an hour one recent Saturday afternoon greeting voters outside a Jewel grocery store in Wood Dale, Ill. The message was overwhelmingly unified: Crack down on illegal immigration.

“It completely eclipses Iraq,” Roskam said.

Immigration is regularly the first topic raised during town hall meetings or conference calls with constituents, said Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot. “It’s the first thing they want to talk about.”

And the first thing many Republican candidates want to talk about in a year when there are other topics about which they would prefer to change the subject.

This is a great  article.   

We have all squirmed in anger as the medias --all of them--- try to convince us that the Iraqi War is far more important than immigration to voters. 

Yesterday’s CNN Republican debate was evidence that they will do anything to avoid the facts.  Tom was the only one to express the importance. 

It is good to see in print--that there exist some admission that the Iraqi war taking top priority with voters is a  lie.  As we have been doing a body count here in America of Mexican’s victims  now for about 10 years---we all know where the real dangers exist.  

As far as the Islamic Terrorist---building a doubled, armed, manpowered army could end the influx of these people as well.   Our government allowing the Mexicans to make money by personally escorting terrorist across the border should be unacceptable to all of us.

 

---

 

I think the Dems are going to find out that more of their members are livid about the illegals than they realize, or than they are willing to discuss with pollsters. 

Illegal immigration will be the issue in the election for both parties.

The Dems risk losing a portion at least of the Black vote if they continue to pander to the illegals who are causing serious disruption in Black lives. They are also risk losing a goos percentage of their moderate voters,  like this 20 plus year Dem, who will not support their immigration policies.

The Dems risk becoming the Hispanic/Illegals Party, rather than a party for all Americans. They are voting on bills that harm Americans but benefit illegals. They do not support the American language or culture. Their amnesty plans, as they benefit primarily Hispanics, and do not provide the same opportunties to non-Hispanics, are inherent racist and unconstitutional. They may be in for a very nasty surprise.

 

 

 

 

Bettybb said:

 

I think the Dems are going to find out that more of their members are livid about the illegals than they realize, or than they are willing to discuss with pollsters. 

Illegal immigration will be the issue in the election for both parties.

The Dems risk losing a portion at least of the Black vote if they continue to pander to the illegals who are causing serious disruption in Black lives. They are also risk losing a goos percentage of their moderate voters,  like this 20 plus year Dem, who will not support their immigration policies.

The Dems risk becoming the Hispanic/Illegals Party, rather than a party for all Americans. They are voting on bills that harm Americans but benefit illegals. They do not support the American language or culture. Their amnesty plans, as they benefit primarily Hispanics, and do not provide the same opportunties to non-Hispanics, are inherent racist and unconstitutional. They may be in for a very nasty surprise.

I don't know, obama is getting more and more popular, especially with blacks, and he is full out for amnesty and giving illegals drivers licenses, scholarships, whatever...and  it is predicted if he wins Iowa, he will just about be the nominee as 99% of the blacks will then run to his side!  I don't understand it as I keep hearing that illegal immigration is a top problem per the Iowa people, but obama is riding high there from all indications!

---

What language is this in?

---

What language is this in?

Hmmm, could it be Carville Cajun?

---

 

That is interesting about Obama, but I presume that when it comes down to the choice between the illegal immigration issue and supporting the first black to run for President, the pride issue takes over.

I agree that Obama's stance on immigration and the lack of impact on him is strange. I can only presume that people are not pushing him on it because they do not really believe he will be the nominee.

Well we will see how it plays out.

Was the way this was added to the forum absolutely necessary? 

Is everyone's FS home page stretched to the max also?

I'll deal with it-just curious though.

---

Yes, Alamo, and it's a PITA!  Even the front page is streched with the commericals in the midle!  I even shut down, rebooted, etc. thinking it was just my puter.

---