National Poll: On Eve Of Announcement, Fred Thompson Increases Lead Among Conservatives

Survey Of 39,000 Grassroots Conservatives Also Gives Ron Paul Biggest Gain, Signals End to McCain’s Campaign And Notes Hillary’s Rise

9/5/07, For Immediate Release. Grassfire.org

Maxwell, IA . A nationwide Straw Poll conducted by Grassfire.org in the week prior to Fred Thompson’s presidential bid announcement finds that grassroots conservatives favor Fred Thompson by a greater than 2-to-1 margin over his nearest competitor -- a 4 percent increase since May.

When asked whom they would vote for if the Republican primary were held today, 28 percent preferred Fred Thompson (up from 26 percent in May), whose closest rival, Mitt Romney, gained 14 percent of the vote (down 2 percent from May). “Despite talk of Thompson’s stalled campaign this summer, conservatives have not lost confidence in the former Senator,” says Grassfire.org President Steve Elliott.

Ron Paul Rising
Rep. Ron Paul showed the biggest gain from Grassfire’s May poll, rising from seventh position (6 percent) to a solid third position (13 percent) – a more than a 50 percent increase in support among grassroots conservatives. Mike Huckabee’s support also rose, from 3 to 7 percent. “Paul’s rise shows that conservatives are not all that thrilled with the anointed frontrunners,” says Elliott. “Paul’s message is resonating with many conservatives, and it would be wise for the other candidates to take note.”

Other findings:

•Giuiliani expected to win: Although they favor Thompson, conservatives still expect Giuliani to win the nomination.

•Giuliani could spark exodus: Conservatives warn of an exodus should Giuliani face Clinton in the general election with 29% indicating they would abstain or vote for a third party -- an increase of 4% from Grassfire’s May poll. Slightly less (25%) warned of an exodus in a Romney-Clinton general election.

•Clinton expected to win: Conservatives now overwhelmingly expect Clinton to win the Democratic nomination (70%, up from 50% in May). The expectation of an Obama nomination dropped nearly in half (29% to 15%).

•McCain done: Conservatives have given up on the McCain campaign. The Senator lost half his support (down to 4%) while dropping by two-thirds among those who think he is likely to win (14% to 4%).

•Iraq war support dropping: Support for “staying the course” in Iraq dropped from 67% in May to 58% in August, while the percentage of conservatives calling for withdrawal rose from 16% to 22%.

Survey methodology
Grassfire.org conducted the survey August 27-September 2. All active Grassfire.org team members were invited to participate. 39,440 participated. The survey has a margin of error of less than 1% at a 99% confidence level for the Grassfire.org audience of approximately 1 million grassroots conservatives.

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Detail Survey Results
(Note: Change from May 2007 Grassfire Straw Poll indicated)

Political Affiliation:
Republican 68% (-5% from May 2007 poll)
Independent 18% (+3%)
Democrat 7%
Other 3% (+1%)
Libertarian 2%
Constitution 1%

REGARDLESS OF YOUR POLITICAL AFFILIATION, who do you think WILL WIN the Democratic party’s nomination for president in 2008? (select one)
Hillary Clinton 70% (+20%)
Barack Obama 15%(-14%)
John Edwards 8% (-3%)
Al Gore 2% (-2%)
Joe Biden 2%
William Richardson 1% (-2%)
Others less than 1%

If you plan on voting Republican and your party’s primary or caucus were held today, for whom would you vote? (select one)
Fred Thompson 28% (+2%)
Mitt Romney 14% (-2%)
Ron Paul 13% (+7%)
Newt Gingrich 12% (-2%)
Rudy Giuliani 11% (-2%)
Mike Huckabee 7% (+4%)
Tom Tancredo 6% (-1%)
John McCain 4% (-4%)
Duncan Hunter 3%
Sam Brownback 2% (-1%)

REGARDLESS OF YOUR POLITICAL AFFILIATION, who do you think WILL WIN the Republican party’s nomination for president in 2008? (select one)
Rudy Giuliani 34% (-2%)
Fred Thompson 26% (+4%)
Mitt Romney 20% (+2%)
Newt Gingrich 4% (-2%)
Ron Paul 8% (+5%)
John McCain 4% (-10%)
Mike Huckabee 2% (+1%)
Tom Tancredo 1% (-1%)
Sam Brownback 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%