Survey Of 91,000 Grassroots Conservatives Gives Fred Thompson Clear Lead, Warns Of Possible Exodus If Giuliani Wins

For Immediate Release. Grassfire.org

Maxwell, IA . A nationwide Straw Poll of grassroots conservatives conducted by Grassfire.org has given Fred Thompson a nearly two-to-one lead over the closest challenger.

When asked whom they would vote for if the Republican primary were held today, 26% preferred Fred Thompson followed by Mitt Romney (16%), Newt Gingrich (14%), Rudy Giuliani (13%), John McCain (8%) and Tom Tancredo (7%). “The results were somewhat surprising considering Thompson has not announced his candidacy,” says Grassfire.org President Steve Elliott. “It appears the conservative base is not thrilled with the current candidates and is eager to give Thompson a chance.”

When asked who they think will actually win the Republican party’s nomination, Giuliani was the clear favorite (36%) among conservatives with Thompson taking a distant second (20%). At this point, the base does not expect Romney (18%) or McCain (14%) to gain the nomination. Conservatives overwhelmingly expect Hillary Clinton (50%) to win the Democratic nomination over Barak Obama (29%).

Giuliani-Clinton General Election
The Straw Poll also asked how grassroots conservatives would vote in a Giuliani-Clinton general election. While, as expected, conservatives favored Giuliani over Clinton (70% to 5%), 25% of conservatives indicated they would either abstain or vote for a third-party candidate. “This data reveals that an exodus from the G.O.P. by the conservative base is a real possibility if Giuliani wins the nomination,” says Elliott. “If one in four conservatives abstain or vote third party, it could throw the general election to the Democrat.”

Survey methodology
Grassfire.org conducted the survey May 7-25. All active Grassfire.org team members were invited to participate. 91,891 participated. The survey has a margin of error of less than 1% at a 99% confidence level for the Grassfire.org audience of approximately 1 million grassroots conservatives.

Media inquiries, interview requests regarding survey, go here

Detail Survey Results

Political Affiliation:
Republican 73%
Independent 15%
Democrat 7%
Other 2%
Libertarian 2%
Constitution 1%

REGARDLESS OF YOUR POLITICAL AFFILIATION, who do you think WILL WIN the Democratic party’s nomination for president in 2008? (select one)
Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 29%
John Edwards 11%
Al Gore 4%
William Richardson 3%
Joe Biden 2%
Others less than 1%

If you plan on voting Republican and your party’s primary or caucus were held today, for whom would you vote? (select one)
Fred Thompson 26%
Mitt Romney 16%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
John McCain 8%
Tom Tancredo 7%
Ron Paul 6%
Sam Brownback 3%
Duncan Hunter 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Tommy Thompson 1%

REGARDLESS OF YOUR POLITICAL AFFILIATION, who do you think WILL WIN the Republican party’s nomination for president in 2008? (select one)
Fred Thompson 22%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Rudy Giuliani 36%
John McCain 14%
Ron Paul 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%

Of the top four candidates from each major party, who do you think is mostly likely to be the next president of the United States?
Rudy Giuliani 27%
Fred Thompson 22%
Mitt Romney 15%
Hillary Clinton 14%
John McCain 9%
Barack Obama 7%
John Edwards 4%
Al Gore 2%

If Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were the nominees of their respective parties, how would you vote in the general election?
Hillary Clinton 5%
Rudy Giuliani 70%
Third party candidate 16%
Abstain from voting 9%

News Coverage of Poll:
NewsMax
CNSNews (4th item)
CR Newswire